Studies show we will soon be hitting the limits of our current ability to meet the food demands of the human population, let alone pets. Where are we headed?
Limited supply, increasing demand
To achieve a sustainable food system, it is necessary to harmonise both supply and demand of food. On the supply side, to produce food, three elements are essential: land, water and energy. Of these three, energy can be bought (as fertiliser) or is in constant supply (the sun), but land and water are limited.
How limited? The impact of climate change is hard to quantify but there is considerable research on the impact of an increased human population on food supply. Studies examining the relationships between water resources and land use in the future are also increasing in number. The term Water-Energy-Land-Food nexus underlines how closely these four sectors are inter-linked.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, as population grows, so of course does food demand. Equally, as some nations become more wealthy, diet changes. These two factors, in turn, put pressure on local resources: population growth reduces the amount of land and water per person and the adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person.
An unsustainable system
One study (Röös) develops future global food supply scenarios by looking at the links between population, food demand, land and water. The results indicate that, by 2050, if we do nothing, 40% of the global population will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their human population, let alone pets. Humans and pets will need to be restricted to basic diets to effectively resolve these constraints.
Towards a solution
Where do the solutions lie? The figure below
shows the ideal food system.
The European Union, in a paper ‘Towards a more sustainable food supply’, suggests that, by 2040, sustainable agriculture will provide the main foundation of food supply. This is against a background of:
- increasing expected human and pet population
- climate change
- progressive but significant soil erosion
- healthy diets accessible to all
- reduction of meat consumption
- less intensive farming
Under this scenario, by 2030, alternative food production will become common, including urban and peri-urban farming, soil-less farming and aquaculture. Non-conventional and even artificial food products will be in the food supply chain, providing, for example, alternatives sources of protein.
Using this more diversified approach, the supply of healthy and secure food for all can be better ensured, the sustainable use of agricultural land achieved, and food prices kept under control.
More sustainable scenarios
The European Union, following public consultation, recommends the following future directions for food production:
- understanding and managing systems of sustainable agriculture and aquaculture
- alternative sources of protein: exploitation and processing
- environmental impact assessment of agri-cultural practices
- healthy and sustainable diets
- organisational and social innovations for optimising food supply systems from farming to consumption
- improvement of farm and food system management through better informed agro-ecological practices
- advancement of genetic engineering technologies applied to plants, animals and microbes
- integrated social experimentation with novel foods (involving citizens), and
- precision agriculture and breeding: from research to demonstration
Livestock production and consumption is another key focus. One study (Garnett) outlines four hypothetical future scenarios for future livestock production and consumption (see diagram next page).
The ‘fruits of the earth’ scenario involves a shift to mainly plant-based diets. Under the ‘architected flesh’ scenario, meat production would increase through a combination of current livestock production and artificial meat, that is, ‘meat’ grown in the laboratory. Another possible scenario, ‘Calibrated carnivory’, has production systems becoming so intensive that their increased efficiency is sufficient to meet demand. Finally, the ‘Livestock on leftovers’ scenario highlights the possibility of turning biomass from marginal land and human food waste into human edible foods.
Encouraging diversity and innovation
In all of this, it is crucial to encourage biodiversity as, not only does it promote health and wellbeing, it also has social, cultural, economic, and environmental benefits. Diversifying food systems and diets improves human and pet health and contributes to other multiple benefits, including healthy ecosystems. This, in turn, has policy implications.
Countries will need to develop their own food diversification strategies, involving all necessary stakeholders to collaborate in order to provide a healthy diet through nutrition.
They will also need to encourage innovation. Reducing the environmental impact of agriculture and improving food nutritional quality will need innovative methods to produce food and will consequently require innovative techniques.
A systems approach
There is no single or easy solution to address food and nutritional security while achieving environmental sustainability. Agriculture, health, and nutrition are interconnected, dynamic, and multifaceted. To minimise the adverse impact of climate change on agriculture, it is necessary to integrate resource-efficient crops and natural resource management. To enable this, there is, in turn, a need to identify and adopt dietary patterns and crop diversity that lower the environmental impact and enhance health.
It is expected that agricultural systems (animal, laboratory and plant) will exploit technology and legislation to provide a diversity of diets to improve health and wellbeing. This philosophy will go hand-in-hand with policies to promote low environmental impact of food production and more active lifestyles.
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