Analysis: US pet food industry braces for tariffs as Trump returns to Washington

Industry players fear a trade war with uneven consequences for growth. GlobalPETS dives into the winners and losers this situation could create.
With President-elect Donald Trump on his way back to the White House, industry groups are working hard to influence his controversial trade policies. Trump has said he may begin levying tariffs via executive order on the first day of his new administration, 20 January.
A global supply chain at risk?
The incoming Republican president promises significant tariffs on foreign goods as part of a broader economic nationalist agenda. However, it remains unclear how much of his rhetoric around tariffs will manifest in policy, as some suspect his threats are primarily meant to strongarm other countries into trade negotiations.
The American pet food industry relies on a global supply chain that could face significant disruption. Many say this could cause a sharp rise in costs for companies and, ultimately, consumers.
US pet food manufacturers exported products worth $2.4 billion (€2.3B) in 2023, which could become costly if other nations retaliate against American trade barriers.
While the industry faced some disruption during the first Trump administration due to import restrictions, exports of American pet food have grown significantly since he left office in January 2021. According to the Pet Food Institute (PFI), around 53% of those exports go to Canada.
The American Feed Industry Association (AFIA), which represents animal and pet food producers nationwide, says it’s in contact with yet-to-be-confirmed administration officials to voice concerns over the possibility of broad tariffs.
The group stopped short of condemning trade barriers entirely but, in an interview with GlobalPETS, calls for tariffs to be levied “strategically and judiciously.”
Retaliation, inflation and a need for nuance
In advance of taking office, Trump threatened massive tariffs: 25% on all goods from Mexico and Canada, 60% on goods from China and 100% on all BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates).
Some of these suggestions overlap, indicating that the statements may have been made for shock value or as a warning rather than as a considered policy plan.
Experts say such high tariffs are unlikely. In January, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs said that China would likely see a new tariff of around 20% on most goods.
However, even significantly smaller tariffs on foreign goods, similar to those Trump had previously implemented (and President Biden’s administration left in place), could impact the pet industry. For example, when the first Trump administration placed tariffs on steel and aluminum, pet food cans became more expensive.
Production costs up
AFIA’s President and CEO, Constance Cullman, says this kind of knock-on impact can be avoided by nuanced consideration of any new trade barriers. She expressed concern that the Trump administration would levy new tariffs on items not produced in the United States.
“We would not be enthusiastic about tariffs on products that we don’t produce here because all that does is drive up the cost of production without doing anything to protect domestic industry,” Cullman states.
She adds that both Trump’s tariffs, which would charge American companies for their imports, and retaliatory measures from other countries are a threat to pet food.
“We have a global food system, and while we are… one of the big power players in the global market for food production, the fact remains that we import a lot of ingredients and inputs into our production,” Cullman notes.
At the same time, the industry lives and dies by the export market. “That is certainly true of virtually every sector in food and agriculture, and livestock feed and pet food are no exceptions to that,” she adds.
Opportunities for some
Though many economists are skeptical of protectionist policies, tariffs can effectively boost domestic production if they do not contribute to a broader economic slowdown. That said, American companies with heavy domestic production and sourcing are best suited for growth in a high-tariff scenario.
One of the largest industry players, Petco, says it sources few of its products from China, Mexico and Canada. In a Q3 earnings call in December, Chief Financial Officer Brian LaRose told investors that, as a result, the company was relatively insulated from tariff costs. However, the company’s Mexican operation, which imports goods from the US, could be hit by retaliatory tariffs.
Few other companies have publicly commented on Trump’s tariff ideas and are likely waiting to see how the plan solidifies.
It’s not all bad news for exporters. The threat of a trade war may be enough to get certain minutiae of trade agreements renegotiated in a way that helps the pet industry grow. In the food industry, for example, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers, intended to maintain safety standards for food imports, are among the highest barriers to trade.
Many countries maintain high regulatory standards, making it challenging for American manufacturers to sell their products there.
Other barriers
Other specific barriers, like the Mexican government’s determination to end the use of genetically modified corn in human and animal food, could also be discussed (the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is up for review in 2026).
AFIA’s Constance Cullman believes there’s some hope that non-tariff barriers could come down due to new negotiations under Trump’s term in office.
“We would like to see a strategic, vigorous negotiation of new trade agreements and enforcement of existing trade agreements, and that has been somewhat lax in the last several administrations,” she says.
With the outlook uncertain, AFIA plans to keep in touch with the executive branch to provide information when needed. “We have a good understanding and grasp of where some of the pain points are for the animal food sector, and we are prepared to communicate those vigorously,” Cullman concludes.