EU’s parcel duty puts imports under pressure
Falling parcel volumes from Asia and rising costs could accelerate the shift towards regionally based fulfillment and distribution models.
Since coming into effect in July, the €3 ($3.50) customs duty on low-value EU imports has already started to reshape the e-commerce and logistics landscape. Early data indicates a drop in parcel volumes, impacting air-freight capacity and changing how goods are entering the single market.
What’s likely to happen?
According to the European Commission, parcels with a declared value of up to €150 ($175) – those affected by the new measures – accounted for 97.9% of total parcel volume moving into the EU in 2025. The picture could look very different this year, however, as early indications suggest that the new charges are already affecting cross-border parcel flows.
The Commission estimates that up to 65% of small parcels that entered the EU in 2025 were undervalued to avoid import duties. Official data shows that the average declared value of these small packages is just €8.82 ($10.28) per item.
PETS International has reached out to all major postal services across Europe, including those in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, to assess the impact of the new customs duty. Some didn’t have figures available to share, while others did not respond to our requests.
Tracking the numbers
Austria’s national postal company handled a total of 232 million items in 2025. During the first half of this year, Austrian Post was receiving an average of 1.5 million parcels per month from Asia. In July, the company registered a 30-40% decline in parcel volumes arriving from the Asian region, with the vast majority originating from China.
This substantial drop has prompted the company to revise its second-half performance outlook. Even though it achieved a 9% volume growth in total parcel volumes in the first half of 2026, it now expects parcel volume growth to slow significantly to 2-3% for the July to December period. It attributes this to the new charges.
Dutch postal service PostNL says that international e-commerce volume had already come under pressure. Driven mainly by parcels from Asian webshops, this fell by almost 15% in the first half of 2026. In Sweden, declared low-value shipments fell by 21% between July and August. Swedish Customs reports that 151,043 parcels from countries outside the EU were declared during that period.
In Ireland, An Post reports that there has been “some impact” on items arriving in Ireland from outside
the EU. “However, larger retailers and shippers have moved quickly to adjust, with many now fulfilling orders locally or transitioning to Irish-based fulfillment models,” a spokesperson explains. The EU’s €3 charge is applied alongside An Post’s €6.95 ($8.10) customs administration fee.
The Belgian gateway
Belgium also felt an immediate impact of the new duty – due to its role as a key logistics hub for Asian shipments entering Europe. Liege Airport is one of Europe’s main gateways, particularly for parcels arriving from Asia. Nearly 20% of all EU e-commerce customs declarations are processed there, making the site a critical entry point for low-value cross-border shipments into the single market.
In 2025, Belgian customs processed 1.3 billion e-commerce declarations at the airport, equivalent to 3.6 million per day. According to the latest official data, e-commerce parcel volumes fell by 24% in July 2026 compared with the same month in 2025. The decline since June 2026 is even more significant – 41%.
Belgium’s Federal Public Service Finance authority has confirmed to PETS International that this was equivalent to approximately 1.26 million fewer low-value parcels worth up to €150. The number of declarations in July 2026 fell by 52% compared with July 2025. When compared with the previous month of this year, it has dropped even more – by 67%.
Air freight also affected
Prior to the policy’s implementation, aviation consultancy Rotate had estimated that up to 30% of EU e-commerce air cargo imports could be affected over time, representing the equivalent of nearly 5,000 freighter flights annually. In the first 48 hours after the new customs duty came into force, direct China-to- Europe freighter capacity had already dropped by 18%.
This decline moderated slightly to a 14% capacity reduction across the first full week of implementation. Logistics experts expect e-commerce flows to decrease in the short term – as providers adjust their processes and networks – but believe that demand will pick up again toward the fourth quarter of 2026.
Additional country charges
As cross-border shopping continues to put pressure on domestic retailers in many sectors, several governments across Europe are exploring the options of putting additional charges on low-value parcels, with approaches varying significantly from country to country.
Research conducted by the Austrian Retail Association shows that the shift to consumer spending abroad is costing the country’s retailers nearly €570 million ($664.6M) in gross sales and €171 million ($199.4M) in gross value added annually. This results in a GDP decline of approximately €212 million ($247.2M). The country is now planning a €2 ($2.33) parcel tax on certain domestic deliveries of goods purchased through distance selling, to come into effect on 1 October 2026.
The Netherlands has also considered implementing its own €2 handling fee but has decided against it for the time being. The Dutch Customs Administration authority confirmed in June that it would wait for the EU-wide handling fee, which is expected from November 2026.
Discussions have been taking place in Italy on the possible introduction of a national tax on small parcels, which would apply on top of the EU customs fee. If enacted, the measure would bring total direct charges to €5 ($5.82) per parcel category for cross- border shipments entering Italy, adding further complexity to pricing and logistics planning across the single market.
Higher costs for e-commerce giants
The new customs rules are also forcing major e-commerce platforms to take a good look at – and possibly adapt – their pricing, compliance and logistics strategies, with some warning that higher costs could ultimately be passed on to consumers.
In a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chinese online fashion retailer SHEIN formally identified regulatory changes to de minimis thresholds – which allowed duty free entry and simplified clearance for low-value shipments – as a material risk factor. Europe represented 35.4% of total net revenues in 2025.
The document filed on 26 July says: “We expect to pursue a wide range of options in response, including increasing our prices in Europe to offset a portion of the increased costs, and there might be a short-term adverse impact on our sales volume in Europe as a result.”
Seller responsibilities
The changes are also shifting greater responsibility for customs compliance onto e-commerce traders. Under the new EU customs framework, web platforms and retailers conducting distance sales into the EU are responsible for customs formalities and payments, with financial penalties possible for operators that repeatedly fail to meet their obligations.
Chinese e-commerce group Alibaba has said that its cross-border e-commerce platform AliExpress is focusing on improving pricing transparency at checkout.
To reduce cart abandonment and the risk of packages being rejected upon delivery, the platform has integrated tariff calculations into the shopping cart and incorporated applicable compliance costs into the final price shown to consumers.
Consumers shouldn’t foot the bill
BEUC – The European Consumer Organisation – is concerned that some postal and delivery operators may try to pass the new costs on to consumers after purchase. The EU Consumer Rights Directive requires traders to provide consumers with the total price when they purchase items, including taxes and applicable delivery or postal charges.
“Consumers should not foot the bill for the new €3 fee. The reform is clear: from July, it’s importers and not consumers who are paying for customs duties. Yet we’re already hearing that some operators may try to pass these costs on at the doorstep,” BEUC’s Director General Agustín Reyna says.
Benefits of local fulfillment
The new rules are also accelerating the shift towards EU-based fulfillment. PostNL has seen an increasing number of international webshops shipping orders from distribution centers within the EU, allowing goods to be delivered to consumers without being subject to the new import duty at the point of sale.
An example of this is Chinese-owned marketplace Temu, which is expanding its network of European- based merchants whose products are already held within the EU. Through its Local Seller Centers, the platform is supporting local businesses and entrepreneurs with locally registered entities, inventory and fulfillment capabilities. The company has set a long-term target of generating 80% of its European sales through local sellers and local fulfillment.
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