From megacities to gigacities
Keeping pets requires resources and space and in the megacities of the future, both may not be available. Due to the continuing worldwide expansion of cities, pet owners are already adapting to the future of urban life. So this presents an enormous business opportunity for the pet industry, because one thing is certain: there will always be pets and the number of megacities is growing.
Unsustainable
Millions of people share their daily lives with pets. Some academics say that human-animal relationships could change due to the technological advances of the last decades. According to the study ‘Frontiers in Veterinary Science’, pet ownership in its current form is likely unsustainable among a growing, urbanized population. The Australian researcher Dr. Jean-Loup says that the digital revolution will definitely have an effect on pet ownership, equivalent to the industrial revolution which replaced animal power for petrol and electrical engines.
Luxury possession
The number of pets worldwide is gradually growing. About 40% of U.S. households have a dog, and about 30% include a cat. This means that at least half of all households in the U.S. has a pet. At the same time, economic growth in Asia has boosted pet ownership in China, Japan and Korea.
According to Rault there is an inherent conflict between our remoteness from nature, which appears to stimulate pet keeping, and the sustainability of pet keeping in a growing urbanized society. “Yet, it is difficult to imagine how more than half of the 9.6 billion people of 2050 will keep pets,” says Rault. “Efforts to develop cities that are green and pet-friendly are ongoing.
However, a more realistic scenario is that pets will become a luxury possession for people who can afford to sustain their costs and fulfil their needs in term of space, social, and mental needs.”
Gigacities
More than half of today’s world’s population already lives in cities (UN, 2014, World Urbanization Prospects, Highlights). And this trend will continue, according to forecasts. By 2030, this will have risen to two-thirds of the global population. Most of these urban areas will be located in North America (82%, the Caribbean (80%) and Europe (73%). While vast parts of Africa and Asia are still mostly rural, their cities are among the fastest growing in the world.
According to the report ‘The megacity state: The world’s biggest cities shaping our future’ from Allianz Risk Group, urban areas with more than 10 million inhabitants are growing fast. These are the world’s megacities. By 2030, there will be 41 of such cities with at least 10 million inhabitants. But a new category of urban agglomeration has emerged: gigacities. These are super cities with more than 50 million inhabitants. Although it is an unimaginable number, these gigacities may soon become a reality in China.
Innovating techniques
“The course of how we will live in the future is being set in these megalopoles. This is where tomorrow’s trends are emerging,” Allianz board member Axel Theis predicts. And many academics think the key element of the city of the future is its compactness. Building better connected, more compact cities based on mass public transport can save over 3 trillion dollars in investments costs over the next 15 years. These will improve economic performance and reduce emissions, thereby raising the quality of life (New Climate Economy Report).
The Allianz report further states that people today, after getting up may have only checked their e-mails and posted something on social media, but in the future may also take a quick look at a wall monitor. Such a monitor tells you the status of your apartment battery, solar panels and algae bioreactors.
There already are large cities that invest in innovative techniques, according to The Wall Street Journal article ‘As world crowds in cities become digital laboratories’. These include smart irrigation systems in Barcelona, crowdsourced flood alerts in Jakarta and sensors in Santander, Spain, which monitor everything from air quality to the availability of parking spaces.
Small dogs
According to Thomas Liesch from Allianz Climate Solutions the ideal city is one that consists of multiple self-contained centres. “The idea is that in the city of the future, people would work and live in their respective districts, thus saving time and energy and reducing traffic density. Fewer cars mean less population and more space for pedestrians. It would also create more space for leisure activities and food production.” This is good news for pet owners, especially dog owners, who will have more space for their pets in this vision of the future.
Pet owners in some megacities have already found a solution to keep pets in their crowded environment. Just look at Brazil. Almost 85% of the Brazilians live in vast, densely populated cities like Sao Paulo. According to Euromonitor, the South American country is home to nearly 20 million small dogs. In fact, Brazil has more small dogs per resident than any other country in the world.
Sustainable and environmental factors
Urbanites are spending more money on sustainable goods with environmental factors increasingly influencing the choices of consumers in both the pet food and pet product segments. The Euromonitor report states that this is particularly the case with cat food made from fish. In 2010, Mars pledged to only buy fish from fisheries or fish farms certified as sustainable by third parties. In 2015, it replaced all of its wild-caught fish supply in North America with sources approved by the Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Seafood Watch programme. Owners are also increasingly seeking out toys made from recycled and natural materials. US-based Petfection makes toys from such ingredients as organic cotton, hemp, bamboo and recycled rubber. Cat litter made from recycled materials is also growing in popularity. Nestlé’s Yesterday’s News is made from recycled paper, while other products utilise ingredients ranging from corn kernels to walnut shells.
Single-person household
In the megacities of the future there will be a larger middle-class than today. According to Euromonitor, for example, in 2010, only 7% of Chinese households had an annual disposable income of more than US $45,000 (€40,508) according to purchasing power parity (PPP). By 2015, this figure had more than doubled to 15%. This figure also more than doubled in India (from 6% to 13%) over the same period.
Many of these newly financially-empowered consumers have adopted Western consumption habits, including pet ownership. More of them now own pets and are prepared to indulge them by purchasing premium pet food and pet products.
In big cities, there is also a strong growth in the number of single-person households in many markets, particularly China. According to Euromonitor, this is the result of later marriage and child birth, elevated divorce rates and longer life expectancy. This is likely to lead to higher levels of pet ownership (as those living alone seek companionship) and a deepening of the pet humanisation trend. Partly as a result of this, constant value sales of premium dog and cat food are projected to rise. So, pet ownership will grow in tandem with the growth of megacities.
Pets keep us alive
Since scientific studies continue to show that pets are beneficial to human health, there will be an increase in therapy pets, service pets and emotional support animals. So the amount of pet owners will grow gradually, especially in the world’s largest cities.
“While the exact details of the future are currently unclear, one thing is certain: pets will always be in the picture,” says pet lifestyle expert Wendy Diamond in The Huffington Post. “Our pets keep us alive. They keep us grounded, they make sure that we know how to love and they won’t settle for an affectionate text message. Our pets need our real physical attention, and that is the greatest gift that they can give us. In a hypothetical future when we all interact via screen and signal, every physically isolated human being can be expected to have a pup at their side or a kitten on their lap.”