Middle East tensions disrupt global logistics: What we know so far

In late February, military actions between the United States and Iran escalated, with Iran retaliating against allied forces in the Gulf region. The situation quickly expanded into a broader Middle Eastern conflict, with global repercussions.

Economically, this is particularly significant due to disruptions along key international trade routes and rising oil prices, both of which ripple across the global logistics and supply chain networks.

While the effect on the pet industry is not yet clear, higher transportation costs and potential delays in importing ingredients, packaging and finished products could pose challenges for companies in the sector.

Stock markets

The effects are also being felt in the stock markets. Data from Bloomberg shows that the main stock indices in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and Europe have accumulated losses over the past month.

If we look at the pet industry, there is no strong evidence (yet) that the stock prices of listed companies have been directly affected by the war. For example, Petco’s shares rose after the earnings release, initially gaining around 5-7% before surging roughly 35% the following day.

The only notable development so far is that the planned initial public offering (IPO) of Greencross in Australia has been paused due to “market volatility linked to the conflict,” according to local press.

Hikes in oil prices

Both crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose roughly 50% in one month, according to data from Yahoo Finance, to 48.6% and 50.5%, respectively. While crude oil is currently being traded at around $95 (€82) a barrel, Brent has surpassed $100 (€87) a barrel.

Since the beginning of the conflict, prices have fluctuated slightly but remain higher than before. Both types have traded at stable prices since June 2025, when another conflict involving Israel and Iran disrupted oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz.

The location is strategic: it comprises a narrow sea passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. According to the International Energy Agency, on average, 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, which accounts for more than 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

Asia is particularly vulnerable, as it imports 40% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the global energy think tank Ember. But even countries that are not overalas exposed to this route can see general prices rising as a reflection of higher energy and freight costs, according to Amsterdam-headquartered bank ING.

Europe may also tend to be hit harder, the bank notes, as the continent imports almost all of its oil and a significant share of its LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas).

Logistic disruptions

ING also highlights transport disruptions affecting markets. “Insurers are cancelling cover, shipping premiums are spiking and vessels are re-routing or pausing transits. The knock-on effects extend well beyond energy.”

Ports and airports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran were hit, which further compromises logistics routes. As an example, according to logistics player DHL, ports in the UAE are reporting waiting times of up to 10 days for containers.

ING adds that “the Iran war is unfolding against a global trading system already strained by Trump’s tariff offensive and the lingering fragmentation of supply chains since Covid and the war in Ukraine.”

Danish giant logistics company Maersk, which transports about 20,000 containers per week into the Gulf region, says its customers “with cargo to and from the Gulf are in a very difficult situation.”

“We are trying to find the best possible solution under these circumstances. This may involve having containers temporarily stored, having them returned or identifying a new port to which they can be shipped,” says Chief Commercial Officer Karsten Kildahl. On March 13th, Kildahl said the company paused the acceptance of nonessential cargo in the region.

Additionally, CEO Vincent Clerc told the BBC that the increase in costs due to higher oil prices and longer – and more expensive – alternative routes will be passed on to its customers. According to Clerc, the additional costs amount to $200 (€173) for a standard 20-ft shipping container, representing a 15%-20% increase in freight costs.

Operators such as Maersk and the German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd have adopted Emergency Contingency Surcharges, an extra fee for cargo transported through high-risk or heavily disrupted routes.

Inflation

There are also broader effects on global financial markets, which are primarily reflected in increased uncertainty and rising risk premiums, according to the Swedish Export Credit Corporation (SEK), a state-owned credit provider for export companies.

“Geopolitical tension tends to widen credit spreads, especially in the high‑yield segment and in emerging markets,” it says.

Increased inflation is another factor that could affect the pet industry. Just as companies have had costs passed on by logistics operators, they can also pass them on to their customers.

This would ultimately raise the final price of goods – including pet food and supplies – for consumers. Furthermore, in economies where supply is effectively cut, a possible shortage of goods may also lead to a price increase.

However, it will be necessary to wait until mid-April to get an idea of ​​the war’s impact on inflation, as governments usually release CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for the previous month in the middle of the following month. Pet food and supplies prices have already started 2026 growing in the EU, UK, Canada and Brazil.

The European Central Bank (ECB) says that higher energy prices are likely to push up inflation in the short term, and the conflict could slow economic growth. “The implications for medium-term inflation depend on the breadth and duration of the conflict,” says an ECB member to the Financial Times.

For ING, the lack of clarity about the conflict’s duration and how long this disruption will last will weigh on the general economic outlook. “If the conflict drags and uncertainty weighs on business investment and consumer confidence, the growth outlook darkens too,” it concludes.